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Talking about 22nd September 2018, it was said to be a Black Friday for the Indian share market. Why was it called a Black Friday? On that day Sensex crashed over by 1,100 points as well as Nifty fell over the 11,000 mark. Amongst all the shares listed in BSE; DHFL & Yes Bank shares were the biggest losers which tumbled around by 60 % & 29 % respectively in a single day.
Around that time, most of the common investors had a thought that is this fall an opportunity to invest in these two shares? Is this what they call an early Diwali sale so as to invest now and earn good returns later?
Let us seek to understand the reason behind these plunges. Firstly, let us see why the share of DHFL plunged by almost 60% in a single day? Consider, there is this one person who has invested his money in two different banks. So out of the interest that he gains on his investment in one of those two banks, he utilizes it to make his other payments. In simple terms, consider he has invested in Bank ‘A’. So the interest that he receives from this Bank A, he utilizes it to make his other payments. Similarly, he has invested in Bank ‘B’ as well.
What happens next is that Bank A starts to default and the person does not receive any interest on his investment as there is some issue with the bank A. This happens twice, that he does not receive any interest from the bank A. Due to this, he is unable to make his other payments as he is dependent on the interest income which he generates through his investment in bank A.
In this case, what would he do? Because he is expected to make payments to other parties, so now he decides to make payments through the interest that he receives on his investment from bank B and makes his payments.
Now, he thinks that what if bank B defaults as well? Out of this fear, he takes out all his money from bank B. As this news leaked out, more & more people withdrew their money from the bank. This is what happened with the DHFL bank.
The DSP mutual fund had invested in the IL&FS Company wherein the company started defaulting on the bonds. They defaulted twice. We all knew that the company had been facing certain issues. So what to do when IL&FS is defaulting on payments?
Then DSP decides to withdraw the money which they had invested in DHFL by selling off the bonds & commercial papers of DHFL bank. Due to this, all the investors started fearing that whether DHFL is also facing issues like IL&FS is facing? Is there a problem with DHFL too?
As this news leaked in the market, there was a jerk in the market and thus, the DHFL share plunged by almost 60% in a single day. While addressing this issue, the then MD of the DHFL bank gave a clarification on this issue saying that the bank is not facing any liquidity issues.
What if such a problem persists in the future? Out of this fear, the investors started selling off their investments and it resulted in the share plunging by 60%.
After the share recovering 20% while closing, the investors had a doubt in their mind whether is this an indication that there is an opportunity to invest here for the long-term? Can we earn good returns in the long-run by investing here now? We had advised, absolutely not. It was just a small bounce back as it had closed with a 20% recovery in its price. Had we seen the technical chart, we would’ve found that the share had started moving in downtrend already.
Till the chart does not give an indication of the share being in an uptrend, one should not risk and invest in the share. The technical chart there had indicated that the share has given a close around 350 but later, the share was supposed to move in a limited range of 370 to 274 in its upcoming period. For the DHFL share, 274 acted as a support. If the share goes beyond 274, it was suggested that there might be an indication of further downfall from there-on in the share. This was all about the DHFL share.
Secondly, let us now talk about Yes bank share. Talking about investing in Yes bank, we had advised it to be simply a No bank i.e. not to invest in Yes bank. Yes, the bank has seen a plunge of close to 29 % in a single day. The news was that RBI had refused to extend the term of then MD & CEO of Yes Bank, Mr. Rana Kapoor. Owing to his exit from the bank, many investors too decided to exit i.e. pull-out their investments from the bank.
Also, on the technical front, the chart indicated that Yes bank had broken its support level and fell below it. Consider, for example, if you throw a ball from the 10th floor of a building, you’ll naturally see the ball bounce back a little. Similarly, just like DHFL, you could witness a bounce back in the share of Yes bank too is what we had suggested.
In the case of Yes bank, there was no such indication of an uptrend. Further, it was possible that you could see that share plunging further down its level of newfound support too.
On 2nd September 2018, we had uploaded a video on YouTube where-in we had mentioned that due to the US market, the other share markets of the world could witness a bullish phase. We have said in that video that till the time US market index Dow Jones is above the mark of 25,600 there is a strong possibility that Dow Jones would cross the mark of 26,600 till December 2018. So, as we had mentioned in that video Dow Jones has reached the mark of 26,600 even before December proving our prediction right. Hence, Dow Jones has indicated a further uptrend by reaching this mark.
In the same video, we had mentioned that despite Dow Jones indicating an uptrend, our Indian share market valuation is still expensive and its momentum at that point was negative. Thus, we had advised that as the market valuation is expensive, invest in limited proportion if you wish to invest. The market just needed some triggers to fall down and it had found a loop-hole.
The loop-hole was that the banking companies are regulated by the RBI but there is some issue with the Non-banking Finance companies. And this problem was being strongly brought to light in front by companies such as DHFL and Yes Bank.
Hence, we had advised in our video that if you had your investments in any of such non-banking finance companies and you come across such a bounce-back then it’s an opportunity for you to sell off and not to invest more. Thus, the bounce back is making a path for you to exit soon. This was all about DHFL and Yes Bank case study.
Until our next blog…
Happy Trading, Happy Investing!!!
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